Friday, January 2, 2009

Ok…it’s Boston Prediction Time… 15+ weeks out.

Back in 1991, I was in pretty good shape. I had just turned 28 in August and was running consistent 50 mile weeks through the summer and sometime during those dogs days I decided to run the Chicago marathon that coming October. I had heard good things about the course (flat/fast), and hadn’t run a marathon in a couple of years and wanted to give it a shot. I’d run a couple of sub 17 minute 5k’s and a sub 36 minute 10k earlier that summer as well as a couple of 20 milers so I was cocky enough to think I could run somewhere around 2:40... Soooo…. without any “real” or structured build up, preparation or taper, I ended up running a 2:53:21. I went through the half in sub 1:20, bonked hard at mile 23 and literally almost walked the entire last half mile. I’m certain with some better pacing skills (and a more realistic goal) I could have run something around 2:45 at that time.

Well here it is 17 years later, and I’m 17 years older, and 17 years wiser. I have NO DOUBT that I can still, with proper preparation, run just as fast now as I did back then. As for my upcoming Boston attempt, barring any injuries or major set-backs, I’m going to call it conservatively optimistic and say…..

… it comes…..

…..wait for it….

…that I’d like to run a PR… There you go, and without actually giving a specific time.… anything under 2:53 and I’ll be on top of the world… although I’d be just as happy with a sub 3:00, especially at Boston. Maybe after a few more months and a few more AeT test efforts, there may be a better indication if this goal is a realistic one or not come next Patriot’s Day.

With my extended break from work for the holidays.. I decided to let the facial hair do what it wants... at least until I go back to work. Not exactly caveman worthy, but if I had another 2 weeks then I'd give Tim a run for his money! Here are a couple of pics I took right before my 10 mile progression run on Wednesday.. Air temp 28, real feel temp of 11 deg F.


GZ said...

Ward - well, you do have 17 more years of base. :)

I recall when I was younger looking at distance - performance equivalency charts and thinking how the low end events (mile, two mile) were "easier" than the equivalent performances at high end (half marathon, marathon).

Somewhere on the way to the late 30 show that shifted. I am betting the same for you as well.

Live it.

FatDad said...

Sweet beard! I can't grow that much hair on my HEAD...
Happy New Year!